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Planned adaptation to climate change denotes actions undertaken to reduce the risks and capitalize on the opportunities associated with global climate change. This paper summarizes current thinking about planned adaptation. It starts with an explanation of key adaptation concepts, a description of the diversity of adaptation contexts, and a discussion of key prerequisites for effective adaptation. On the basis of this introduction, major approaches to climate impact and adaptation assessment and their evolution are reviewed. Finally, principles for adaptation assessment are derived from decision-analytical considerations and from the experience with past adaptation assessments.

Professor Ross Garnaut was commissioned by all of the governments of Australia’s federation to examine the impacts of climate change on Australia and to recommend policy frameworks to improve the prospects of sustainable prosperity. The Garnaut Climate Change Review examines the impacts of climate change on the Australian economy and the costs of adaptation and mitigation. It analyses the elements of an appropriate international policy response, and the challenges that face Australia in playing its proportionate part in that response. The Garnaut Climate Change Review is highly relevant to the global problem that is climate change. It considers what policies the international community should adopt in responding to climate change, and urges humanity to act now, and in concert, to develop the required policy response in time.

The Garnaut Climate Change Review was commissioned by the Commonwealth, state and territory governments in 2007 to conduct an independent study of the impacts of climate change on the Australian economy. In September 2008, I presented the Review’s final report to the Australian Prime Minister. The report examined how Australia, as a single country, was likely to be affected by climate change and how it could best contribute to climate change mitigation, and begin to adapt. In November 2010, I was commissioned by the Australian Government to provide an update to the 2008 Review. In particular, I was asked to examine whether significant changes had occurred that would affect the key findings and recommendations reached in 2008. The commissioning of the update reflected the changed international and domestic landscapes for climate change action following the international climate change conferences in Copenhagen and Cancun in 2009 and 2010, and the Great Crash of 2008. What implications did these events have for climate change policy globally and in Australia? This book, the final report of the update process, is the product of seven months of careful research, analysis, expert studies and consultation, which have examined key developments in the past two and a half years across a range of areas—the climate science, global greenhouse gas emissions, international progress on climate change mitigation, Australia’s land and electricity sectors, innovation and technology, and carbon pricing. Eight detailed update papers were released between February and March 2011. Two supplementary notes came out at the same time as this book. These materials and other supporting information can be found on the Garnaut Climate Change Review website at www.garnautreview.org.au.

The Future Fuels Forum is exploring challenges arising from plausible scenarios for the future of transport fuels in Australia. A key objective of the project was for the deliberations of the Future Fuels Forum to be supported by quantitative analysis of the scenarios that were developed. The process of exposing the scenarios to quantitative analysis influenced the formulation of the scenarios by helping to determine the relative importance of different scenario drivers and their assumed future states. Conversely the interaction of the modelling team with the scenario developers assisted in improving various aspects of the quantitative model. This report provides the technical detail behind the projections presented in the report Fuel for thought (CSIRO and Future Fuels Forum, 2008). It describes the modelling framework that was applied, the scenario and model assumptions that were used to underpin the modelling and the detailed model results associated with each scenario examined. The report contains results for a number of sensitivity cases not discussed in detail in Fuel for thought. While the core drivers of the main scenarios are greenhouse gas emissions trading and changes in international oil supply, the sensitivity cases address uncertainty around social preferences for travel, additional policies that might be considered by governments and technological uncertainty in regard to biofuels, hydrogen, nuclear power and CO2 capture and storage. Besides providing additional detail on modelling results the purpose of the report is to make the assumptions of the modelling framework and underpinning data more transparent. The model that is employed for this report is CSIRO’s Energy Sector Model (ESM). It is a partial equilibrium model of the Australian energy sector including a detailed transport sector representation. It was co-developed by CSIRO and the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) in 2006. Since that time CSIRO has significantly modified and expanded ESM. Like all models, ESM has specific strengths and limitations which are discussed in detail in this report.

This paper presents a brief summary of a literature review prepared as part of the Alice Solar City (ASC) monitoring and evaluation work and aimed at enabling a comparison between the ASC project and available academic information. The literature reviewed was primarily selected for its relevance to energy conservation within households. Although quite comprehensive, the review is by no means a complete examination of all available literature within the field, and there are few Australian studies available, compared to those from Europe and North America. The broad topics of the review (below) have been summarised within the context of the ASC project.

This paper investigates the difficulties that have been encountered when non-indigenous renewable energy technologies have been transferred to rural areas of industrialising countries. Specifically, it focuses on the cultural and organisational aspects of these technologies. Another dimension analysed is that of the interactions between the various stakeholders in the technology transfer process. There has been a lack of attention to these interactions, specifically a neglect to consult with the end users of the systems by the project implementers. The importance of addressing this fundamental deficiency cannot be over emphasised in the need to redress the performance of the transfer process. The lack of appropriate institutional support mechanisms and financial resources can work in synergism with this former factor. In conclusion, an assessment is made of the most appropriate technology transfer mechanisms for these systems, which are likely to expedite sustainable rates of dissemination to the intended benefactors. This assessment incorporates the earlier findings on the social and institutional barriers to successful transfers, and the mechanisms used by the various agents to perform the transfer, as these have a significant impact on the viability of the renewable energy systems.

Climate projections for northern Australia include higher temperatures, more extreme rainfall, sea-level rise and more intense cyclones within the next 50 years. Consequently, long sections of coastline, river deltas, wetland areas and off-shore islands will be susceptible to erosion and saltwater inundation, while inland areas are likely to have more bushfires, dust storms, extremes in temperatures, flooding and droughts. Many of these biophysical impacts have direct and indirect effects on the health and well-being of people living in affected regions, especially those who are sensitive to environmental change and who, for various reasons, have a low capacity to adapt. Such people include thousands of Indigenous Australians living in outstations scattered across northern Australia from the Kimberley, through to Arnhem land, the central deserts, far north Queensland and the Torres Strait. These communities are disproportionately vulnerable to the impacts of biophysical change due to a number of factors. Many Indigenous people living in remote areas have a heightened sensitivity to ecosystem change due to the close connections that exist for them between the health of their ‘country’, their physical and mental well-being and the maintenance of their cultural practices. A biophysical change manifested in a changing ecosystem has, for example, the potential to affect their mental health in a way not usually considered in non-Indigenous societies. A lack of basic infrastructure, lower social and economic status and existing chronic health problems also contribute to many of these communities having lower adaptive capacity. Even though Indigenous Australians living in remote communities have been recognised as highly vulnerable in the international climate impacts literature, there is little domestic research that considers their specific vulnerability which could be used to guide policy makers. This paper reviews evidence of the likely health impacts for these communities and provides material to inform adaptation strategies.

Adaptive practices are taking place in a range of sectors and regions in Australia in response to existing climate impacts, and in anticipation of future unavoidable impacts. For a rich economy such as Australia’s, the majority of human systems have considerable adaptive capacity. However, the impacts on human systems at the intra-nation level are not homogenous due to their differing levels of exposure, sensitivity and capacity to adapt to climate change. Despite past resilience to changing climates, many Indigenous communities located in remote areas are currently identified as highly vulnerable to climate impacts due to their high level of exposure and sensitivity, but low capacity to adapt. In particular, communities located on low-lying islands have particular vulnerability to sea level rise and increasingly intense storm surges caused by more extreme weather. Several Torres Strait Island community leaders have been increasingly concerned about these issues, and the ongoing risks to these communities’ health and well-being posed by direct and indirect climate impacts. A government agency is beginning to develop short-term and long-term adaptation plans for the region. This work, however, is being developed without adequate scientific assessment of likely ‘climate changed futures.’ This is because the role that anthropogenic climate change has played, or will play, on extreme weather events for this region is not currently clear. This paper draws together regional climate data to enable a more accurate assessment of the islands’ exposure to climate impacts. Understanding the level of exposure and uncertainty around specific impacts is vital to gauge the nature of these islands’ vulnerability, in so doing, to inform decisions about how best to develop anticipatory adaptation strategies over various time horizons, and to address islanders’ concerns about the likely resilience and viability of their communities in the longer term.

This scoping study presents an assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on Indigenous settlements and communities across tropical northern Australia, including the Torres Strait Islands and the Pilbara region of Western Australia. The study region is home to about 87,000 Indigenous people, around a quarter of the total population of 355,000. The region includes 665 settlements varying from less than 50, to 3,500 people. Approximately 50 per cent of this Indigenous population lives within 20 kilometres of the coast or on offshore islands. Indigenous people in northern Australia face many existing challenges. These include: remoteness, poor health, inadequate infrastructure, lack of educational and employment opportunities, and low incomes. Climate change will exacerbate many of these pre-existing challenges. However, new opportunities also exist for some of these communities from climate change. Many of these opportunities will stem from existing roles that community members play in managing natural and cultural resources in remote areas on behalf of the nation. Climate change is expected to impact the study region in diverse ways. Although the magnitudes are uncertain, impacts that are certain to occur include: • Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels that will alter plant growth; • Increasing temperatures that will affect human and natural systems; • Rising sea levels that pose threats to low-lying settlements and estuarine ecosystems; and • Ocean acidification that will endanger coral reefs and affect marine food chains. Other impacts likely to occur but with less certainty include: • Seasonal change in rainfall with likely increases in intensity in the rainy season for some regions which will affect access and water supplies; and • Greater cyclone intensity that will increase inundation of coastal areas.

The Government’s 2009 Climate Change Policy established a Green Energy Taskforce to provide expert advice on strategies, incentives and pathways to encourage the growth and funding of the renewable and low emissions energy industry in the Territory as well as assisting the Territory in meeting its goal of having 20% of its electricity demand met by renewable and low emission sources by 2020. Its Terms of Reference identified priorities for the Taskforce’s first two reports, as follows: 1. Develop a detailed proposal for substituting a large component of diesel generation with renewable and low emissions energy in remote communities, including financing and funding options; and 2. Prepare an evaluation of the relative merits, feasibility and likely costs of the potentially available renewable technologies to be used in the NT, including geothermal, solar, biomass and tidal.

The Government’s 2009 Climate Change Policy established a Green Energy Taskforce to provide expert advice on strategies, incentives and pathways to encourage the growth and funding of the renewable and low emissions energy industry in the Territory as well as assisting the Territory in meeting its goal of having 20% of its electricity demand met by renewable and low emission sources by 2020. Its Terms of Reference identified priorities for the Taskforce’s first two reports, as follows: 1. Develop a detailed proposal for substituting a large component of diesel generation with renewable and low emissions energy in remote communities, including financing and funding options; and 2. Prepare an evaluation of the relative merits, feasibility and likely costs of the potentially available renewable technologies to be used in the NT, including geothermal, solar, biomass and tidal.

Population health is a function of social and environmental health determinants. Climate change is predicted to bring significant alterations to ecological systems on which human health and livelihoods depend; the air, water, plant, and animal health. Agricultural systems are intrinsically linked with environmental conditions, which are already under threat in much of southern Australian because of rising heat and protracted drying. The direct impact of increasing heat waves on human physiology and survival has recently been well studied. More diffusely, increasing drought periods may challenge the viability of agriculture in some regions, and hence those communities that depend on primary production. A worst case scenario may herald the collapse of some communities. Human health impacts arising from such transition would be profound. This article summarizes existing rural health challenges and presents the current evidence plus future predictions of climate change impacts on Australian agriculture to argue the need for significant augmentation of public health and existing health policy frameworks. The article concludes by suggesting that adaptation to climate change requires planning for worst case scenario outcomes to avert catastrophic impacts on rural communities. This will involve national policy planning as much as regional-level leadership for rapid development of adaptive strategies in agriculture and other key areas of rural communities.

Climate change will have significant and diverse impacts on human health. These impacts will include changes in infectious disease incidence. In this article, the authors review the current situation and potential future climate change impacts for respiratory, diarrheal, and vector-borne diseases in Australia. Based on this review, the authors suggest adaptive strategies within the health sector and also recommend future research priorities.

This report describes research on the possible generation of greenhouse gas offsets derived from Indigenous land management. Land management practices can sequester carbon or change emissions regimes, and with access to markets, a change in carbon stocks or emissions may be sold as an offset. Biophysical, economic, and institutional conditions set limits to these possibilities. Research was undertaken as a scoping study to build capacity within CSIRO to assess opportunities for greenhouse gas offsets from Indigenous land management. We explore the premise that engaging with markets through providing offsets is a potentially profitable and desirable opportunity for Indigenous enterprises. This study focuses on fire management in savannas, reforestation of cleared land, and grazing land management. Experiences gained during this scoping study serve to guide CSIRO’s future research agenda, and contribute to the discussion regarding the financial viability of offset projects, rather than presenting definite conclusions about their profitability.

The impacts of climate change are already clearly visible in Australia. Further impacts predicted to occur in the future will be experienced across all sectors of the economy and in all ecosystems. Southern and eastern Australia’s water supply reliability is expected to decline as a result of reduced rainfall and increased evaporation, affecting irrigation, domestic and industrial water use, and environmental flows. This is likely to be accompanied by a growth in water demand due to population growth. Development and population growth in Australia’s coastal regions will exacerbate the risks from sea-level rise and increase the likely severity and frequency of coastal flooding. Significant losses of unique Australian animal and plant species are expected to occur in sites such as the Great Barrier Reef, the Queensland Wet Tropics, the Kakadu wetlands, south-west Australia, eastern alpine areas, and Australia’s sub-Antarctic islands, disrupting ecosystem function and causing the loss of ecosystem services. The risks to infrastructure include the failure of urban drainage and sewerage systems, more blackouts, transport disruption, and greater building damage. Higher temperatures, altered groundwater and soil conditions, sea-level rise and changed rainfall regimes may also lead to accelerated degradation of materials. Heatwaves, storms and floods are likely to have a direct impact on the health of Australians, such as causing an increase in heat-related deaths. Biological processes such as infectious diseases and physical processes such as air pollution may affect health indirectly; for example, by increasing exposure to dengue fever. Moderate warming in the absence of rainfall declines can be beneficial to some agricultural crops, and higher levels of carbon dioxide can stimulate plant growth. However, these positive effects can be offset by changes in temperature, rainfall, pests, and the availability of nutrients. Production from cropping and livestock is projected to decline over much of southern Australia, as is the quality of grain, grape, vegetable, fruit, and other crops.

The Australian Government is conducting a comprehensive national review of drought policy. The review includes three separate assessments.The first examines the implications of future climate change for the current exceptional circumstances (EC) standard of a one in 20-25 year event and is provided in this report.The others cover economic and social aspects. This study analyses changes in the areal extent and frequency of exceptionally high temperatures, low rainfall and low soil moisture for seven Australian regions (see Figure 1): Queensland (Qld); New South Wales (NSW); Victoria and Tasmania (Vic&Tas); the northwest (NW); the southwest (SW); the southwest of WA (SW WA); and the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB). The analysis uses observed and simulated data covering varying periods from 1900 to 2040. Low, mean and high projections are given for future years. The uncertainties associated with the historical data and the climate projections are noted, including the qualitative assessment that the temperature data have the lowest uncertainty, that there is higher uncertainty with the rainfall data, and that the soil moisture data – being derived from a combination of rainfall data, low resolution observations of evaporation, and modelling – are the least reliable.

Potential impacts of climate change are likely to be substantial without further adaptation. As a result of reduced precipitation and increased evaporation, water security problems are projected to intensify by 2030 in southern and eastern Australia and, in New Zealand, in Northland and some eastern regions (high confidence). • Ongoing coastal development and population growth, in areas such as Cairns and south-east Queensland (Australia) and Northland to Bay of Plenty (New Zealand), are projected to exacerbate risks from sea-level rise and increases in the severity and frequency of storms and coastal flooding by 2050 (high confidence). • Significant loss of biodiversity is projected to occur by 2020 in some ecologically rich sites, including the Great Barrier Reef and Queensland Wet Tropics. Other sites at risk include Kakadu wetlands, south-west Australia, sub-Antarctic islands and alpine areas of both countries (very high confidence). • Risks to major infrastructure are likely to increase. By 2030, design criteria for extreme events are very likely to be exceeded more frequently. Risks include failure of floodplain protection and urban drainage/sewerage, increased storm and fire damage, and more heatwaves, causing more deaths and more blackouts (high confidence). • Production from agriculture and forestry is projected to decline by 2030 over much of southern and eastern Australia, and over parts of eastern New Zealand, due to increased drought and fire. However, in New Zealand, initial benefits to agriculture and forestry are projected in western and southern areas and close to major rivers due to a longer growing season, less frost and increased rainfall (high confidence). Vulnerability is likely to increase in many sectors, but this depends on adaptive capacity. • Most human systems have considerable adaptive capacity: The region has well-developed economies, extensive scientific and technical capabilities, disaster mitigation strategies, and biosecurity measures. However, there are likely to be considerable cost and institutional constraints to the implementation of adaptation options (high confidence). Some Indigenous communities have low adaptive capacity (medium confidence). Water security and coastal communities are the most vulnerable sectors (high confidence). • Natural systems have limited adaptive capacity: Projected rates of climate change are very likely to exceed rates of evolutionary adaptation in many species (high confidence). Habitat loss and fragmentation are very likely to limit species migration in response to shifting climatic zones (high confidence). • Vulnerability is likely to rise due to an increase in extreme events: Economic damage from extreme weather is very likely to increase and provide major challenges for adaptation (high confidence). • Vulnerability is likely to be high by 2050 in a few identified hotspots: In Australia, these include the Great Barrier Reef, eastern Queensland, the South-West, Murray-Darling Basin, the Alps and Kakadu wetlands; in New Zealand, these include the Bay of Plenty, Northland, eastern regions and the Southern Alps (medium confidence)

Chapter 6 of Garnaut (2008) addressed climate change impacts on Australia. The focus was on 2030 and the period 2030-2100. Sectors included: • Resource-based industries and communities, e.g. irrigated and dryland agriculture, tourism; • Critical infrastructure, e.g. water and electricity supply, buildings, ports; • Human health, e.g. heat-related deaths, dengue fever, gastroenteritis; • Ecosystems and biodiversity; and • Indirect impacts, e.g. international trade, geopolitical stability, food security, climate refugees, overseas disasters and diseases. The chapter didn’t cite the IPCC Working Group 2 Chapter 11 synthesis on impacts in Australia and New Zealand (Hennessy et al. 2007) but it did cite a few reports from within the IPCC chapter. Some of the issues not discussed in Chapter 6 or in papers commissioned by the Review are covered by Hennessy et al. (2007). These include forestry, horticulture, viticulture, fisheries and Indigenous communities. Some of the key reports to emerge since 2008 are summarised.

This report presents results of a project undertaken by CSIRO for the Northern Territory Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Environment to assess observed and projected climate change over the Territory, as well as potential impacts and knowledge gaps. This assessment draws upon the latest findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published in 2001, as well as more recent information about regionally-specific changes in temperature, rainfall, potential evaporation, tropical cyclones and storm surges

The recent changes in Australia’s climate, the likelihood of further changes over the next decades to centuries, and the likely significant impacts of these changes on the Australian livestock industries, provide increasing urgency to explore adaptation options more effectively. Climate and atmospheric changes are likely to impact on the quantity and reliability of forage production; forage quality; thermal stress on livestock; water demands for both animal needs and for growing forage; pest, disease and weed challenges; land degradation processes; and various social and economic aspects including trade. Potential adaptation options are available for moderate climate changes, with these often being variations of existing climate risk management strategies. However, to date there are few Australian examples where these adaptations have been assessed systematically on any scale (e.g. enterprise, regional, whole of industry or national). Nor have many studies been undertaken in a way that (i) effectively harness industry knowledge, (ii) undertake climate change analyses in the framework of existing operational systems, or (iii) assess climate change in the context of other socioeconomic or technical changes. It is likely that there are limits to the effectiveness of existing adaptations under more severe climate changes. In such cases more systemic changes in resource allocation need considering, such as targeted diversification of production systems and livelihoods. Dealing with the many barriers to effective adaptation will require ‘mainstreaming’ climate change into policies covering a range of scales, responsibilities and issues. This mainstreaming will facilitate the development of comprehensive, dynamic and long lasting policy solutions. The integrative nature of climate change problems requires science to include integrative elements in the search for solutions: a willingness to apply integrated rather than disciplinary science and a strengthening of the interface with decision-makers.

Links to report details: Assessment Reports http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.shtml#1 Special Reports http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.shtml#2 Methodology Reports http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.shtml#4 Translations in non-UN languages http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.shtml#6

Regional Climate Models: Linking Global Climate Change to Local Impacts

The renewable energy industry is growing rapidly amidst rising concerns about oil depletion and climate change. Renewable energy is seen by many as part of the appropriate response to these concerns and some national Governments have put programs in place to support the wider use of sustainable energy systems. This has led to a rapid increase in demand for renewable energy specialists who are able to design, install and maintain such systems. Most engineers are not trained to use these renewable energy technologies and most are not aware of the principles of sustainability. There is therefore an urgent need to develop and implement new courses that prepare engineers, scientists and energy planners to work with renewables to produce sustainable energy generation systems. Renewable energy education is a relatively new field and previously it formed a minor part of traditional engineering courses. These days it has an identity of its own, with special techniques, standards and requirements which are not normally encountered in other disciplines. Attempts to add one or two units of study on renewables into traditional science and engineering degrees are unlikely to produce graduates with sufficient knowledge or understanding to use renewables effectively. Modern renewable energy education includes a study of the technology, resources, systems design, economics, industry structure and policies in an integrated package. This prepares the graduates to design sound systems from amongst the range of options available. There are more pitfalls in the use of renewables than there are in using the more mature conventional technologies and systems. Designers, installers and service personnel need to be particularly aware of the industry and the characteristics of the various firms and their technologies. Over the past decade several new approaches have emerged to renewable energy education that seek to address the needs of the 21st century for sustainable energy supply systems. This paper will describe the aims, philosophy, structure and outcomes of several of these initiatives. It includes courses in renewable energy science, renewable energy engineering, renewable energy policy and planning and renewable energy technician training. The paper will also describe some aspects of the training of researchers in cooperation with the renewable energy industry.

Whether the characteristics of tropical cyclones have changed or will change in a warming climate — and if so, how — has been the subject of considerable investigation, often with conflicting results. Large amplitude fluctuations in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones greatly complicate both the detection of long-term trends and their attribution to rising levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Trend detection is further impeded by substantial limitations in the availability and quality of global historical records of tropical cyclones. Therefore, it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes. However, future projections based on theory and high-resolution dynamical models consistently indicate that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2–11% by 2100. Existing modelling studies also consistently project decreases in the globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones, by 6–34%. Balanced against this, higher resolution modelling studies typically project substantial increases in the frequency of the most intense cyclones, and increases of the order of 20% in the precipitation rate within 100 km of the storm centre. For all cyclone parameters, projected changes for individual basins show large variations between different modelling studies.

The socio-economic features of northern Australia