Remote Australia Online

This study evaluates the interdecadal variability of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in 21 coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) participating in the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). 110 years of the Climate of the 20th Century (20C3M) simulations are analyzed using wavelet analysis. The results show that the state-of-the-art CGCMs display a wide range of skill in simulating the interdecadal variability of ENSO. The 21 models can be categorized into three groups. The first group (8 models) shows an oscillation with a constant period shorter than the observed ENSO period, and sometimes with a constant amplitude. The second group (5 models) does not produce many statistically significant peaks in the ENSO frequency band, but usually produces one or two prominent peaks (episodes) at period longer than 6 years. The third group (8 models) displays significant interdecadal variability of ENSO in both amplitude and period. Among them, only the MPI model reproduces the observed eastward shift of the westerly anomalies in the low-frequency regime.

Providing hot water for remote indigenous communities in Australia has become a priority as part of the effort to improve indigenous health. Earlier work by Healthabitat, among others, has identified washing people to be important in overall health outcomes. In the remote central and northern regions of Australia, the solar regime is very good and the potential for the use of solar hot water systems has been thought to be among the best in the world. Reports from communities in these areas, however, have been pointing to severe problems with the operation of solar hot water systems. The present paper gives the results of a trial of 29 hot water systems in remote locations with the view to identifying the best systems. Of the 29 systems, 14 were solar systems, six were heat exchange systems and the remainder gas and electric. In addition, four biomass heaters (CAT chip heaters) were trialed alongside solar systems. The hot water systems were located at Napranum (northern Queensland), Kintore (NT), Kalka (SA), Wataru (SA) and Alice Springs (NT). The trial started in June 1997 and finished in October 1998. Data loggers were placed on the systems to monitor water temperature, electricity consumption and water flow. Solar radiation and ambient temperature were also monitored at each site. The project was funded by the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Commission (ATSIC).

It has been long thought that the northern and central regions of Australia are ideal places for the installation of remote area power supplies (RAPS) based on renewable energy. In particular the solar regime in these areas is among the highest in the world. The Centre of Appropriate Technology has been undertaking a project, as part of the Australian Cooperative Research Centre for Renewable Energy research program, to look at the viability of renewable energy systems in remote areas of northern and central Australia. The study has involved compiling a database of existing knowledge of renewables in these areas combined with a set of site visits and case studies to look at both community attitudes to renewable energy and the actual operation of the systems. The study started in early 1997 and is due to be completed towards the end of 1999. The present paper outlines the logistics of the study and some of the results. The emphasis so far has been on wind and solar systems (including hybrid diesel systems) in Aboriginal communities. Some work has progressed for systems in pastoral properties and tourist ventures. The fieldwork to date has covered northern South Australia and the Northern Territory. Further fieldwork will occur in northern Queensland and Western Australia in mid 1999.

Bushfires are an inevitable occurrence in Australia. With more than 800 endemic species, Australian vegetation is dominated by fire-adapted eucalypts. Fire is most common over the tropical savannas of the north, where some parts of the land burn on an annual basis. However, the southeast, where the majority of the population resides, is susceptible to large wildfires that threaten life and property. A unique factor in these fires of the southeast is the climate of the region. The southeast experiences a so-called Mediterranean climate, with hot, dry summers and mild, wet winters. The winter and spring rains allow fuel growth, while the dry summers allow fire danger to build. This normal risk is exacerbated by periodic droughts that occur as a part of natural interannual climate variability. Climate change projections indicate that southeastern Australia is likely to become hotter and drier in future. A study conducted in 2005 examined the potential impacts of climate change on fire-weather at 17 sites in southeast Australia. It found that the number of ‘very high’ and ‘extreme’ fire danger days could increase by 4-25% by 2020 and 15-70% by 2050. Tasmania was an exception, showing little increase. This report updates the findings of the 2005 study. A wider range of observations is analysed, with additional sites in New South Wales, South Australia and southeast Queensland included. The baseline dates of the study, commencing in 1973, are extended to include the 2006-07 fire season. The estimated effects of climate change by 2020 and 2050 are recalculated using updated global warming projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Two new fire danger categories are considered: ‘very extreme’ and ‘catastrophic’. This study also differs from the 2005 study in that different analysis methods are used. In addition to the annual changes in fire danger estimated before, changes to individual seasons and season lengths are explicitly examined. There is also a focus on the changes to the upper extremes of fire danger. These projected changes are compared with trends over the past few decades.

The paper analyses the evolution of the photovoltaics industry in Australia, Germany and Japan from a comparative policy perspective. It uses a sectoral innovation system framework to discuss the way the three countries have approached the development of knowledge and new technologies, the actors in the sector and the interactions between them, the role of institutions and availability of funding as well as the development of markets for photovoltaics. It outlines the different paths that the countries have adopted for the process of transition from niche to mass production. The findings show that various national players have specialised in different activities, with the institutions' building block being a key determinant for success or otherwise. In the case of Australia, it is also the least developed area which ultimately exposes the country to losing its innovation benefits.

The Australian rangelands are divided into regions for statistical reporting, cultural identification or administrative and bioregional management purposes. However, many of these divisions do not reflect the characteristics of inland towns. In this study we used the Urban Centre/Locality (UCL) structure (for settlements with at least 200 people) as the smallest unit of analysis to build preliminary socio-regions based on demographic (e.g. Median Age and percentage of Indigenous people in UCL), socio-economic (dependency ratio and unemployment rate) and a few environmental indicators (e.g. Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Rainfall variability). A key finding of the study is that there are strong differences among UCLs in the rangelands. A threshold of around 5000 people is apparent with some indicators across all UCLs around which variability changes. There is much greater variability in the indicators among UCLs with fewer than 5000 people than there is among UCLs with over 5000 people. This confirms the need to consider statistical units smaller than those commonly used such as Statistical Local Areas (SLAs) as these and other regionalisation techniques mask the detail within areas that contain socio-economically and culturally different settlements. The high variability of indicator values observed for UCLs with smaller populations suggests that they have more diverse research, policy and investment needs than larger urban centres. We used a non-traditional approach and grouped UCLs into socio-regions based on their social characteristics instead of their geographic location. This created clusters of similar UCLs rather than contiguous regions. Some of these socio-regions cross administrative and statistical borders. The regionalisation presented in this study is likely to be valuable when selecting case-study areas for research projects and, in the long-term, when developing policy and investment initiatives.

A review of measurement and causal analysis of Indigenous poverty and disadvantage in remote Indigenous Australia

Typologies are a systematic grouping of entities or units of interest based on similarity. Typologies are widely applied in a variety of domains of research and practice including natural resource management, agriculture, health, marketing and development. They are used mainly to reduce complexity in the domain of concern to improve understanding and communication, detect patterns, aid decisions, prioritise and allocate resources, and tailor a variety of activities, strategies and processes. In this paper, we assess the current use of typologies within the realm of climate vulnerability assessments and adaptation sciences to better understand the potential use of typologies to further our ability to prepare for climate change risk. We found a limited number of climate vulnerability and adaptation studies that directly and indirectly developed typologies to help understand climate risk, and the example applications of typologies that have been developed have limitations in rigour, validity and even practical utility at times. There is especially a gap in the coverage of a typology work for the purpose of vulnerability assessments. The first gap is the potential application of typologies developed in the fields of cultural studies, learning and social psychology into the studies of behavioural aspects of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change. The second is the development of participatory typology as a communication and social learning tool that improves understanding of vulnerabilities to climate change and enhances collaborative adaptation. These limitations and gaps provide opportunity for potential improvement and expansion of typologies application in the research of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change. CSIRO

Climate change projections are often given as equally weighted averages across ensembles of climate models, despite the fact that the sampling of the underlying ensembles is unclear. We show that a hierarchical clustering of a metric of spatial and temporal variations of either surface temperature or precipitation in control simulations can capture many model relationships across different ensembles. Strong similarities are seen between models developed at the same institution, between models sharing versions of the same atmospheric component, and between successive versions of the same model. A perturbed parameter ensemble of a model appears separate from other structurally different models. The results provide insight into intermodel relationships, into how models evolve through successive generations, and suggest that assuming model independence in such ensembles of opportunity is not justified.

The escalation of the renewable energy capacity growth rate in remote pastoral Western Australian (WA) off-grid stand-alone power supply (SPS) systems over the last decade was extraordinary. The expansion was encouraged by subsidised renewable energy technologies, enabling components and system installation costs. This research quantifies and explores the changes over time of rated outputs of renewable and conventional energy components, and energy demand in SPS systems in pastoral WA over the last 30 years. This research revealed parallel increases in conventional generation unit output ratings, renewable energy capacity, and energy demand over the past decade. Whilst recent developments are encouraging, there remain many technical, social, economic and regulatory barriers to overcome the small-scale renewable energy SPS system industry in WA. A lack of mandatory standards has resulted in a minority of poor SPS systems and some aggravated owners in regions where reliability and reputation are paramount. After investing many tens of thousands of Australian dollars (AUD) on new capital equipment, minor system integration issues are becoming a frustratingly common cause of system failure for remote SPS system owners.

The provision of safe and reliable energy is essential for the development of a modern economy and has been the prime goal of domestic energy policy. There are, however, many remote communities in Australia that lack access to a conventional electricity grid but are well placed to take advantage of viable alternatives. In these situations the deployment of renewable energy systems would not only solve the electricity supply problems but would also assist in achieving environmental policy goals by cutting net greenhouse gas emissions and moving communities closer to sustainable development. The utilisation of these alternatives also offers an interesting laboratory to test the theoretical framework of ecological modernisation that underpins environmental policies. Despite their many benefits, the uptake of renewable energy systems in remote communities often remains curiously low. This paper investigates the barriers to change by analysing some of the political, economic and social factors that have been at work. The results provide some useful findings, particularly with regards to the need for effective community engagement in successful policy implementation.

The need to improve environmental management in Australia is urgent because human health, well-being and social stability all depend ultimately on maintenance of life-supporting ecological processes. Ecological science can inform this effort, but when issues are socially and economically complex the inclination is to wait for science to provide answers before acting. Increasingly, managers and policy-makers will be called on to use the present state of scientific knowledge to supply reasonable inferences for action based on imperfect knowledge. Hence, one challenge is to use existing ecological knowledge more effectively; a second is to tackle the critical unanswered ecological questions. This paper identifies areas of environmental management that are profoundly hindered by an inability of science to answer basic questions, in contrast to those areas where knowledge is not the major barrier to policy development and management. Of the 22 big questions identified herein, more than half are directly related to climate change. Several of the questions concern our limited understanding of the dynamics of marine systems. There is enough information already available to develop effective policy and management to address several significant ecological issues. We urge ecologists to make better use of existing knowledge in dialogue with policy-makers and land managers. Because the challenges are enormous, ecologists will increasingly be engaging a wide range of other disciplines to help identify pathways towards a sustainable future.

Adaptation is a process of deliberate change in anticipation of or in reaction to external stimuli and stress. The dominant research tradition on adaptation to environmental change primarily takes an actor-centered view, focusing on the agency of social actors to respond to specific environmental stimuli and emphasizing the reduction of vulnerabilities. The resilience approach is systems orientated, takes a more dynamic view, and sees adaptive capacity as a core feature of resilient social-ecological systems. The two approaches converge in identifying necessary components of adaptation. We argue that resilience provides a useful framework to analyze adaptation processes and to identify appropriate policy responses. We distinguish between incremental adjustments and transformative action and demonstrate that the sources of resilience for taking adaptive action are common across scales. These are the inherent system characteristics that absorb perturbations without losing function, networks and social capital that allow autonomous action, and resources that promote institutional learning.

In the first paper in this series [Nelson, R., Kokic, P., Crimp, S., Martin, P., Meinke, H., Howden, S.M. (2010, this issue)], we concluded that hazard/impact modelling needs to be integrated with holistic measures of adaptive capacity in order to provide policy-relevant insights into the multiple and emergent dimensions of vulnerability. In this paper, we combine hazard/impact modelling with an holistic measure of adaptive capacity to analyse the vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change. Bioeconomic modelling was used to model the exposure and sensitivity of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change. Rural livelihoods analysis was used as a conceptual framework to construct a composite index of adaptive capacity using farm survey data. We then show how this integrated measure of vulnerability provides policy-relevant insights into the constraints and options for building adaptive capacity in rural communities. In the process, we show that relying on hazard/impact modelling alone can lead to entirely erroneous conclusions about the vulnerability of rural communities, with potential to significantly misdirect policy intervention. We provide a preliminary assessment of which Australian rural communities are vulnerable to climate variability and change, and reveal a complex set of interacting environmental, economic and social factors contributing to vulnerability.

In this article, we discuss how two interpretations of vulnerability in the climate change literature are manifestations of different discourses and framings of the climate change problem. The two differing interpretations, conceptualized here as ‘outcome vulnerability’ and ‘contextual vulnerability’, are linked respectively to a scientific framing and a human-security framing. Each framing prioritizes the production of different types of knowledge, and emphasizes different types of policy responses to climate change. Nevertheless, studies are seldom explicit about the interpretation that they use. We present a diagnostic tool for distinguishing the two interpretations of vulnerability and use this tool to illustrate the practical consequences that interpretations of vulnerability have for climate change policy and responses in Mozambique. We argue that because the two interpretations are rooted in different discourses and differ fundamentally in their conceptualization of the character and causes of vulnerability, they cannot be integrated into one common framework. Instead, it should be recognized that the two interpretations represent complementary approaches to the climate change issue. We point out that the human-security framing of climate change has been far less visible in formal, international scientific and policy debates, and addressing this imbalance would broaden the scope of adaptation policies.

Energy2031 will lead us into an era where more energy will come from low carbon sources, and the manner in which we use energy in our homes and businesses will make full use of the intelligent technology that is available to us today and will continue to emerge into the future. Successful strategies require actions right across the energy supply chain starting with our energy supply, the delivery systems, the way we use energy, and how we can plan for change.

In order to predict the long-term consequences of climate change, it is necessary to link future environmental changes to mechanisms that control plant population processes. This information can then be incorporated into strategies to more accurately model climate change impacts on species or to estimate future extinction risks. We examined the impact of increased temperatures on the longevity and dynamics of the persistent soil seed banks of eight ephemeral species from arid Australia. We found that the predicted global temperature increases under climate change will be reflected in increased soil temperatures, and that seeds in the soil seed bank will be exposed to long durations of high temperatures over the summer months. Three of the eight species studied had significantly greater levels of germination after exposure to predicted increased soil temperatures. Another species displayed a dramatic decrease in seed viability after such exposure. The capacity of such species to use the seed bank to bet hedge against rainfall events that cause germination but are insufficient to allow plant maturation, is compromised by increased germinability and subsequent loss or reduction of seed bank persistence. These predicted changes in the dynamics of soil seed banks increase the risk of local extinctions of these species, while the composition of the community may be altered by changes in species abundance. Our results show that the risk spreading mechanism provided by persistent seed banks could be compromised by the mechanistic impact of forecast temperature increases in arid habitats, and highlight the need to understand mechanisms that control population dynamics when attempting to address likely future impacts of climate change on biodiversity.

Regional climate projections using climate models commonly use an “all-model” ensemble based on data sets such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) 4th Assessment (AR4). Some regional assessments have omitted models based on specific criteria. We use a criteria based on the capacity of climate models to simulate the observed probability density function calculated using daily data, model-by-model and region-by-region for each of the AR4 models over Australia. We demonstrate that by omitting those climate models with relatively weak skill in simulating the observed probability density functions of maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation, different regional projections are obtained. Differences include: larger increases in the mean maximum and mean minimum temperatures, but smaller increases in the annual maximum and minimum temperatures. There is little impact on mean precipitation but the better models simulate a larger increase in the annual rainfall event combined with a larger decrease in the number of rain days. The weaker models bias the amount of mean warming towards lower increases, bias annual maximum temperatures to excessive warming and bias precipitation such that the amount of the annual rainfall event is under-estimated. We suggest that omitting weak models from regional scale estimates of future climate change helps clarify the nature and scale of the projected impacts of global warming.

We evaluate the coupled climate models used in the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Our evaluation is focused on twelve regions of Australia for the daily simulation of precipitation, minimum temperature and maximum temperature. We base our evaluation on Probability Density Functions (PDFs). We introduce a simple quantitative measure of how well each climate model can capture the observed PDFs for each variable over Australia. Across all three variables, the coupled climate models perform better than we expected although one model is clearly flawed in simulating maximum temperature. An overall ranking of the climate models, for the three variables is presented. We therefore provide guidance on those climate models that are skillful over Australia, providing direction on those that should be used in impacts assessments where those impacts are based on precipitation or temperature.

For five years, Forest Trends’ Ecosystem Marketplace and Bloomberg New Energy Finance have published the State of the Voluntary Carbon Markets Reports to shed light on trading volumes, credit prices, project types, locations, and the motivations of buyers in this market. Every year’s marketplace seems more complex than the one before, as actors continually refine their programs, businesses, and investments in search of a more perfect future – for their projects and the planet.

Despite growing global attention to the development of strategies and policy for climate change adaptation, there has been little allowance for input from Indigenous people. In this study we aimed to improve understanding of factors important in integration of Yolngu perspectives in planning adaptation policy in North East Arnhem Land (Australia). We conducted workshops and in-depth interviews in two ‘communities’ to develop insight into Yolngu peoples’ observations and perspectives on climate change, and their ideas and preferences for adaptation. All participants reported observing changes in their ecological landscape, which they attributed to mining, tourism ‘development’, and climate change. ‘Strange changes’ noticed particularly in the last five years, had caused concern and anxiety among many participants. Despite their concern about ecological changes, participants were primarily worried about other issues affecting their community's general welfare. The results suggest that strategies and policies are needed to strengthen adaptive capacity of communities to mitigate over-arching poverty and well-being issues, as well as respond to changes in climate. Participants believed that major constraints to strengthening adaptive capacity had external origins, at regional, state and federal levels. Examples are poor communication and engagement, top-down institutional processes that allow little Indigenous voice, and lack of recognition of Indigenous culture and practices. Participants’ preferences for strategies to strengthen community adaptive capacity tended to be those that lead towards greater self-sufficiency, independence, empowerment, resilience and close contact with the natural environment. Based on the results, we developed a simple model to highlight main determinants of community vulnerability. A second model highlights components important in facilitating discourse on enhancing community capacity to adapt to climatic and other stressors.

Although the economic impacts of climate change have been analysed in Australia at the national level, impacts of climate change via tourism activities have been overlooked. It is likely that the induced economic impact through tourism activities is much more than realised, particularly at the regional/destination level. This paper examines the economic flow-on effects of climate change on five selected Australian tourism destinations. While the flow-on effect of impacts on these five destinations is relatively insignificant at the national level, at the regional level the impacts can be very considerable, and those impacts vary widely between regions. In addition to general direct climate change impacts on the economies of these regions, the larger their tourism share, the severer the flow-on economic impacts involved. The paper raises concerns for policymakers that measuring economic impacts of climate change without considering its flow-on effect through tourism activities will significantly underestimate the total impact of climate change for destination regions. Further, when all tourism destinations are taken into account, the flow-on economic impact of climate change could be significant for the Australian economy as a whole. Analyses such as those reported here could form a basis for scenario examination for policy development.

Climate modelers often use agreement among multiple general circulation models (GCMs) as a source of confidence in the accuracy of model projections. However, the significance of model agreement depends on how independent the models are from one another. The climate science literature does not address this. GCMs are independent of, and interdependent on one another, in different ways and degrees. Addressing the issue of model independence is crucial in explaining why agreement between models should boost confidence that their results have basis in reality.

Australian society is facing a major challenge There is overwhelming evidence that our climate has been changing over the past hundred years and will continue to change, not only in our lifetime but in our children’s lifetime as well. Climate change is a pervasive and critical issue for Australia. We know that Australia has warmed and so have the oceans around Australia. We also know that global greenhouse emissions will continue to drive changes in climate across Australia for the foreseeable future. Australia’s society and economy are exposed to climate change. What is happening in Australia is not happening in isolation. Warming across Australia broadly reflects what is happening in the rest of the world. Australia is fortunate in that we are better placed to adapt to climate change than many other countries. There is, however, no room for complacency in facing the challenge of climate change. The focus of this report is on what we can do to adapt to climate change. It focuses on six sectors (cities and coastal communities, water, health, agriculture, infrastructure and natural systems). Australia’s ability to adapt to short-term climate variability and extreme events serves as a starting point for addressing its vulnerability to climate change. In accordance with the Working Group’s terms of reference, the report does not address the other principal focus of Australia’s response to climate change: reducing our national emissions of greenhouse gases (emission mitigation).

The purpose of this discussion paper is to briefly highlight various perspectives regarding key concepts associated with climate change vulnerability and adaptation, as well as some of the commonly used methodologies and frameworks for assessing vulnerability, adaptive capacity and risk. It was first written in March 2008 as part of a project by the CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship which aimed to build a shared understanding of relevant adaptation concepts and methods, and their utility for facilitating different adaptation challenges. One of the central concepts in adaptation research is that of vulnerability. However, there are significant disciplinary differences with respect to how vulnerability is defined and framed. In some instances, it refers to biophysical vulnerability and is thus well-aligned with the concepts of hazard, exposure or event risk. In other uses, however, it emphasises social, economic, cultural and/or political processes that are more aligned with the concepts of resilience, coping capacity, and/or adaptive capacity. Still others employ more integrated conceptualisations of vulnerability as embodiments of both biophysical and socio-economic processes that collectively create the potential for harm. While there is likely little utility in being overly pedantic about definitions, different ways of framing vulnerability do influence assessment methods and, subsequently, information for decision-makers and how it is interpreted. Hence, attempts to develop some level of general agreement about vulnerability may be useful to researchers and end-users alike.