Remote Australia Online

Community engagement is predicated on partnerships that respect and recognise all stakeholders’ knowledge, strengths and needs. Effective approaches to training and workforce development in remote and regional communities use a range of tools to negotiate each stage of its implementation. The focus on improving engagement is connected to having the flexibility to imagine alternative ways of working with people. The community engagement and training approaches need to be as diverse as the Indigenous communities and participants involved. Approaches must also be connected to Indigenous enterprise contexts and through actual projects or enterprises. With Indigenous communities, training may involve not only training people but also supporting the development of the workplace that will potentially employ learners. Training, then, needs to incorporate existing knowledge and contextualise all learning for that particular situation. Enterprise development training is an approach to Vocational Education and Training (VET) policy, design and delivery for Australian Indigenous communities that can incorporate the key features of best practice in designing and implementing learning and business partnerships. The role that VET can play in developing enterprise and providing employment outcomes, particularly in remote areas, has been recently explored through several projects. This paper considers the key learnings through these projects and the implications for effective community engagement negotiated through enterprise development and training with Indigenous enterprise owners and community members, industry partners and registered training organisations.

This is a report presented to National Crime Prevention (formerly known as National Campaign Against Violence and Crime) and the National Anti-Crime Strategy which covers the second phase of a project aimed at developing strategies to prevent domestic violence by intervention with adolescents. The first phase was undertaken in Northam, Western Australia (see National Campaign Against Violence and Crime - Working with adolescents to prevent domestic violence: Rural town model). This second report focuses on Derby in the West Kimberley region of Western Australia. The research project as a whole, which includes both the rural town and Indigenous community phases, has developed models of intervention with adolescents to prevent domestic violence which are derived from: -a review of the relevant research and policy literature - an environmental assessment of each locality - intensive discussions with key stakeholders This report assumes some knowledge of the first phase of the project. A number of its fundamental perspectives are founded on ideas and theories developed through phase one, particularly those relating to: - the cycle of violence - the learned dimension of violent and aggressive behaviour - the important role played by cultures of masculinity and the corresponding social structures in generating and sustaining acceptance of violence In the second phase of the research these underpinning perspectives were adapted and modified to meet the specific requirements of Derby; a location that experiences problems of relationship violence within quite a different sociocultural framework from Northam. The discussion of the underpinning theories and perspectives on the issue of violence that is found in the first report will not be repeated here. This research was premised on the hypothesis that, irrespective of cultural milieu, beliefs about interpersonal violence tend to be generated through broadly similar processes. These beliefs are transmitted through culture, have a cyclical dynamism, and are exercised under similar conditions, such as where (usually male) authority and status are under threat. In this report emphasis was instead placed, in greater depth than in the Northam phase, on a careful analysis and mapping of the institutional and cultural context of the locality, and on consultations with stakeholders and communities. It is now widely accepted that listening to and negotiating with Indigenous communities must preface any research or policy initiative which may impact upon them. Indigenous people remain adamant that respect for Indigenous culture requires that due weight be accorded to the unique qualities of specific Indigenous peoples and places. While such local factors may not be sufficiently unique to make lessons from schemes developed in one area non-transferable to others, they may influence the character of local problems and of possible solutions.

This short report is drawn from the Workshop Outcomes Report of an Indigenous Knowledge Forum, held at Alice Springs on 28–29 May 2003. The purpose of this report is to provide guidelines, processes and protocols for regional bodies to work effectively with Indigenous knowledge in regional natural resource management. The report outlines: • the regional delivery context • the issues involved in supporting Indigenous knowledge • a framework of principles for engagement with Indigenous knowledge • a partnership approach • an Indigenous Knowledge Support (IKS) Plan • an Indigenous Natural Resource Management (INRM) planning process • protocols for working together • recommendations to improve regional body processes.

This paper reviews research traditions of vulnerability to environmental change and the challenges for present vulnerability research in integrating with the domains of resilience and adaptation. Vulnerability is the state of susceptibility to harm from exposure to stresses associated with environmental and social change and from the absence of capacity to adapt. Antecedent traditions include theories of vulnerability as entitlement failure and theories of hazard. Each of these areas has contributed to present formulations of vulnerability to environmental change as a characteristic of social-ecological systems linked to resilience. Research on vulnerability to the impacts of climate change spans all the antecedent and successor traditions. The challenges for vulnerability research are to develop robust and credible measures, to incorporate diverse methods that include perceptions of risk and vulnerability, and to incorporate governance research on the mechanisms that mediate vulnerability and promote adaptive action and resilience. These challenges are common to the domains of vulnerability, adaptation and resilience and form common ground for consilience and integration.

Four reasons for concern about adaptation to climate change Human-induced climate change is real and is likely to drive increasingly dramatic changes in environments in this century and beyond. So, given the necessity to adapt to the impacts of these climate changes, key issues arise as to the feasibility, cost, and social distribution of the burden of these adjustments at multiple scales. The scale of the human challenge on climate change was portrayed vividly in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report of 2001, in the form of five `reasons for concern' about climate impacts: the risk to unique and threatened ecosystems; the risk of extreme weather events; the distribution of impacts; the scale of aggregate impacts; and the risks of large-scale discontinuities. An iconic diagram, known as the `burning embers', showed that these five reasons for concern become critical as global mean temperature increases beyond 28C of global average warming. The IPCC made this assessment in 2000. At that time emissions and projected future emissions already meant that the earth was committed to increased risk of irreversible change in some ecosystems. But the risk of `large-scale discontinuities', such as significant deglaciation of West Antarctica's ice sheet, were not thought to become significant until perhaps 3 ^ 48C of global average warming over 1990 averages. The burning embers diagram was widely publicised and republished. It came to summarise the IPCC results on the impacts of climate change and contributed to global public concern over climate change. In 2009 a group of authors involved with the IPCC updated the `reasons for concern' framework (Smith et al, 2009). This update uses new knowledge about the sensitivity of environmental systems to climate change, and new models of potential thresholds and irreversibilities in the earth system. The authors show that that the sensitivity of systems at risk is now greater, and so the risk of large-scale disruption is higher than before for any given level of mean temperature rise. This assessment is backed by similar assessments of tipping elements in earth systems (Lenton et al, 2008). The Smith et al (2009) reasons for concern analysis implies that adaptation will stave off the worst excesses of such impacts up to a point. We agree with this assessment in principle, but have our own reasons for concerns about the ability to adapt to such impacts and the likelihood of sustainable adaptation. We explain below four reasons for concern about adaptation: contractions and uncertainties in the window of opportunity for adaptation; the difference between adaptive capacity and adaptive action; the risk of maladaptation; and misguided measures of loss.

This climate change risk assessment and adaptation planning report on the Tiwi Islands Shire Council area was commissioned by the Local Government Association of the Northern Territory with funding support from the Commonwealth Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency. This study provides an overview of climate change trends in the Tiwi Islands area, an analysis of expected climate change impacts and a number of proposed adaptation options. This project should not be considered as a one-off exercise but rather an ongoing process that needs to be revisited by the Tiwi Islands communities and its Council from time to time. The Vulnerability of the Tiwi Islands Shire: The Tiwi Islands Shire is located about 80 km to the north of Darwin in the Arafura Sea. The Tiwi Islands include Melville Island and Bathurst Island which have a combined area of approximately 8,320 km2 and have an estimated population of 2,525 inhabitants (ABS 2009). The 2006 Census revealed that 92.3% of the resident population of Tiwi Islands Shire is Indigenous (ABS 2006). The largest population centres are Nguiu, Pirlangimpi and Milikapiti. The Tiwi Islands communities are exposed to extreme climatic events among which cyclones and storm surge can be considered as the most threatening. The majority of communities on the Tiwi Islands reside along the coastline and have very narrow economic basis. Considered remote, many communities can only be accessed by boat or plane. All these elements make the community highly sensitive to climate change impacts. However, most communities on the Tiwi Islands have shown strong resilience in the face of previous adverse events. Furthermore, the simplicity and robustness of the infrastructure (e.g. concrete ramp for barge landing) make them less exposed to extreme events and less expensive to maintain and repair if they are damaged. This resilience combined with the traditional knowledge held by the community can be built upon to prepare for the inevitable impacts of climate change. The Tiwi Islands have experienced changes in the climate (such as air temperature and rainfall) over the past 30 years. These trends are likely to continue and even accelerate during the 21st Century.

Multiple simulations from nine globally coupled climate models were assessed for their ability to reproduce observed trends in a set of indices representing temperature and precipitation extremes over Australia. Observed trends over the period 1957–1999 were compared with individual and multi-modelled trends calculated over the same period. When averaged across Australia, the magnitude of trends and interannual variability of temperature extremes were well simulated by most models, particularly for the index for warm nights. The majority of models also reproduced the correct sign of trend for precipitation extremes although there was much more variation between the individual model runs. A bootstrapping technique was used to calculate uncertainty estimates and also to verify that most model runs produce plausible trends when averaged over Australia. Although very few showed significant skill at reproducing the observed spatial pattern of trends, a pattern correlation measure showed that spatial noise could not be ruled out as dominating these patterns. Two of the models with output from different forcings showed that the observed trends over Australia for one of the temperature indices was consistent with an anthropogenic response, but was inconsistent with natural-only forcings. Future projected changes in extremes using three emissions scenarios were also analysed. Australia shows a shift towards warming of temperature extremes, particularly a significant increase in the number of warm nights and heat waves with much longer dry spells interspersed with periods of increased extreme precipitation, irrespective of the scenario used.

This report was commissioned by the Australian Greenhouse Office, which is now part of the Department of the Environment and Heritage, as the first step in identifying priorities for the National Climate Change Adaptation Programme. Whereas climate change has been recognised as an important challenge since at least 1987, it was only with the publication, in 2001, of the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that the need to plan for adaptation to climate change received broad recognition. This prompted initial work by the Australian Government on adaptation, particularly through the Australian Climate Change Science Programme to gain a better understanding of likely impacts in Australia. Given the novelty of the issue, regional variation and uncertainty in likely impacts of climate change and the breadth of interests potentially affected, work on adaptation remains at an early stage all around the world. The National Climate Change Adaptation Programme, announced in the May 2004 Budget is an initiative of the Australian Government to commence preparing Australian governments and vulnerable industries and communities for the unavoidable impacts of climate change. Consultations conducted in the course of preparing this report suggest that this national leadership will be generally welcomed. The report takes a risk management approach to identifying the sectors and regions that might have the highest priority for adaptation planning. It is important to consider how effectively key systems will respond to climate change in coming years, and the development of policies that align the direction and extent of adaptation actions with social objectives and values. While effective action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions requires a coordinated global response, in which Australia will play its part, adaptation can be effectively advanced at a local scale. Adaptation and mitigation are related, because our success in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions will determine the magnitude (and possibly the nature) of changes to which we must adapt. Greenhouse gas emissions since the industrial revolution make some climate change inevitable, but adaptation is likely to be a progressively imperfect substitute for reducing global greenhouse gas emissions because the more greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere rise, the greater the risk of ‘dangerous’ anthropogenic interference with the world’s climate system that cannot be readily absorbed or prepared for. This report explores the risks to Australia from the impacts of climate change over the next 30 to 50 years. Within this, an analysis of comparative risks will be important for identifying priorities for adaptation action and planning.

The accurate measurement of the soil organic carbon (SOC) stock in Australian grazing lands is important due to the major role that SOC plays in soil productivity and the potential influence of soil C cycling on Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions. However, the current sampling methodologies for SOC stock are varied and potentially conflicting. It was the objective of this paper to review the nature of, and reasons for, SOC variability; the sampling methodologies commonly used; and to identify knowledge gaps for SOC measurement in grazing lands. Soil C consists of a range of biological materials, in various SOC pools such as dissolved organic C, micro- and meso-fauna (microbial biomass), fungal hyphae and fresh plant residues in or on the soil (particulate organic C, light-fraction C), the products of decomposition (humus, slow pool C) and complexed organic C, and char and phytoliths (inert, passive or resistant C); and soil inorganic C (carbonates and bicarbonates). Microbial biomass and particulate or light-fraction organic C are most sensitive to management or land-use change; resistant organic C and soil carbonates are least sensitive. The SOC present at any location is influenced by a series of complex interactions between plant growth, climate, soil type or parent material, topography and site management. Because of this, SOC stock and SOC pools are highly variable on both spatial and temporal scales. This creates a challenge for efficient sampling. Sampling methods are predominantly based on design-based (classical) statistical techniques, crucial to which is a randomised sampling pattern that negates bias. Alternatively a model-based (geostatistical) analysis can be used, which does not require randomisation. Each approach is equally valid to characterise SOC in the rangelands. However, given that SOC reporting in the rangelands will almost certainly rely on average values for some aggregated scale (such as a paddock or property), we contend that the design-based approach might be preferred. We also challenge soil surveyors and their sponsors to realise that: (i) paired sites are the most efficient way of detecting a temporal change in SOC stock, but destructive sampling and cumulative measurement errors decrease our ability to detect change; (ii) due to (i), an efficient sampling scheme to estimate baseline status is not likely to be an efficient sampling scheme to estimate temporal change; (iii) samples should be collected as widely as possible within the area of interest; (iv) replicate of laboratory analyses is a critical step in being able to characterise temporal change. Sampling requirements for SOC stock in Australian grazing lands are yet to be explicitly quantified and an examination of a range of these ecosystems is required in order to assess the sampling densities and techniques necessary to detect specified changes in SOC stock and SOC pools. An examination of techniques that can help reduce sampling requirements (such as measurement of the SOC fractions that are most sensitive to management changes and/or measurement at specific times of the year – preferably before rapid plant growth – to decrease temporal variability), and new technologies for in situ SOC measurement is also required.

This discussion paper explores the geography of the Indigenous estate, its environmental significance, and some of the innovative approaches adopted by Indigenous landholders to protect the natural and cultural values of their land. A number of maps are used to explore the environmental significance of the Indigenous estate. These maps indicate that the Indigenous estate—making up 20 per cent of the Australian land mass—covers vast areas of relatively intact land. The Indigenous estate contains some of the highest conservation priority lands in Australia. Emerging recognition of the environmental significance of the Indigenous estate is indicated by a number of Commonwealth-funded programs that represent a form of payment for environmental services (PES). Such programs provide important employment opportunities for Indigenous people living in some of the remotest parts of Australia, areas far from mainstream labour markets. Environmental service provision might provide alternate development opportunities on the Indigenous estate beyond standard private sector industries like mining, tourism and pastoralism, or publicly-funded provision of standard municipal services. Note: High resolution versions of the maps from this discussion paper are available as separate document.

The population projections presented in this publication cover the period 2012 to 2101 for Australia and 2012 to 2061 for the states and territories, and capital cities and balance of state regions. The projections are not predictions or forecasts, but are simply illustrations of the growth and change in population which would occur if certain assumptions about future levels of fertility, mortality, internal migration and overseas migration were to prevail over the projection period. The assumptions incorporate recent trends which indicate increasing levels of fertility and net overseas migration (NOM) for Australia. This chapter discusses the projection results, in terms of population size and growth, and the changing age structure and distribution of the population. Three main series of projections (Series A, B and C) have been selected from a possible 24 individual combinations of the various national level assumptions. Series B largely reflects current trends in fertility, life expectancy at birth and NOM, whereas Series A and Series C are based on high and low assumptions for each of these variables respectively.

The preliminary estimated resident population (ERP) of Australia at 31 March 2013 was 23,032,700 people. This reflects an increase of 397,400 people since 31 March 2012 and 114,800 people since 31 December 2012. The preliminary estimates of natural increase recorded for the year ended 31 March 2013 (159,100 people) was 0.8%, or 1,200 people, higher than the natural increase recorded for the year ended 31 March 2012 (157,900 people). The preliminary estimates of net overseas migration (NOM) recorded for the year ended 31 March 2013 (238,300 people) was 10.5%, or 22,600 people, higher than the net overseas migration recorded for the year ended 31 March 2012 (215,700 people).

The Australian Government's position paper, Adapting to Climate Change in Australia, sets out the Government's vision for adapting to the impacts of climate change and proposes practical steps to realise that vision. It outlines the Australian Government's role in adaptation, which includes building community resilience and establishing the right conditions for people to adapt; taking climate change into account in the management of Commonwealth assets and programs; providing sound scientific information; and leading national reform. The position paper identifies six national priority areas for action: water, coasts, infrastructure, natural ecosystems, natural disaster management, and agriculture.

Australia has experienced increasing pressures on groundwater resources due to a drier climate and an increased scarcity of surface water resources. In 2004 the Council of Australian Governments agreed to the National Water Initiative (NWI) which aimed to ensure the implementation of a transparent planning framework that would avoid over-allocation of water resources, including groundwater. Changes in entitlements can occur, but under the NWI it is necessary to assign the risk associated with changes in entitlements due to climate change and variability. This risk assignment will require a good understanding of the processes impacting on water resources from climate change. In response to these issues the National Water Commission has commissioned a project ‘Investigating the impact of climate change on groundwater resources’ within the National Groundwater Action Plan (NGAP). The primary objective of the project is to determine how the temporal variability in rainfall and temperature due to climate change will impact on groundwater recharge and groundwater resources across different aquifer types in different climatic types across Australia. The project is built upon the work carried out by CSIRO in the Murray-Darling Basin Sustainable Yields (MDBSY), Northern Australia Sustainable Yields (NASY), South-West Western Australia Sustainable Yields (SWSY) and Tasmania Sustainable Yields (TasSY) Projects, but also will provide additional information on the impact of changes in groundwater systems that affect groundwater-dependent ecosystems, agricultural production, and stock and domestic water supply in those regions not covered by the CSIRO sustainable yields projects. This report presents the results of a number of project activities, identified within the third milestone of the project plan, with objectives to: - review scientific publication and summarise the current knowledge of the effect of climate change on groundwater recharge and resources - analyse climate types and climate type transitions across Australia for the historical period beginning in 1930 and under projected future climates for 2030 and 2050 - investigate the specifics of diffuse recharge within different climate types - assess the differences in global climate models (GCMs), downscaling methods and hydrological models for projecting future recharge under the A2 scenario for 2050 using three contrasting field sites as examples.

Human systems will have to adapt to climate change. Understanding of the magnitude of the adaptation challenge at a global scale, however, is incomplete, constrained by a limited understanding of if and how adaptation is taking place. Here we develop and apply a methodology to track and characterize adaptation action; we apply these methods to the peer-reviewed, English-language literature. Our results challenge a number of common assumptions about adaptation while supporting others: (1) Considerable research on adaptation has been conducted yet the majority of studies report on vulnerability assessments and natural systems (or intentions to act), not adaptation actions. (2) Climate change is rarely the sole or primary motivator for adaptation action. (3) Extreme events are important adaptation stimuli across regions. (4) Proactive adaptation is the most commonly reported adaptive response, particularly in developed nations. (5) Adaptation action is more frequently reported in developed nations, with middle income countries underrepresented and low-income regions dominated by reports from a small number of countries. (6) There is limited reporting on adaptations being developed to take advantage of climate change or focusing on women, elderly, or children.

Climate change is likely to have a significant effect on the health of those living in the 70% of Australia that is desert. The direct impacts on health, such as increased temperature, are important. But so too are the secondary impacts that will occur as a result of the impact of climate change on an uncertain and highly variable natural environment and on the interlinking social and economic systems. The consequence of these secondary impacts will appear as changes in the incidence of disease and infections, and on the psychosocial determinants of health. Responding to the impacts of climate change on health in desert Australia will involve the active participation of a variety of interest groups ranging from local to state and federal governments and a range of public and private agencies, including those not traditionally defined as within the health sector. The modes of engagement required for this process need to be innovative, and will differ among regions on different trajectories. To this end, a first classification of these trajectories is proposed.

The complexity, variability and vastness of the northern Australian rangelands make it difficult to assess the risks associated with climate change. In this paper we present a methodology to help industry and primary producers assess risks associated with climate change and to assess the effectiveness of adaptation options in managing those risks. Our assessment involved three steps. Initially, the impacts and adaptation responses were documented in matrices by ‘experts’ (rangeland and climate scientists). Then, a modified risk management framework was used to develop risk management matrices that identified important impacts, areas of greatest vulnerability (combination of potential impact and adaptive capacity) and priority areas for action at the industry level. The process was easy to implement and useful for arranging and analysing large amounts of information (both complex and interacting). Lastly, regional extension officers (after minimal ‘climate literacy’ training) could build on existing knowledge provided here and implement the risk management process in workshops with rangeland land managers. Their participation is likely to identify relevant and robust adaptive responses that are most likely to be included in regional and property management decisions. The process developed here for the grazing industry could be modified and used in other industries and sectors. By 2030, some areas of northern Australia will experience more droughts and lower summer rainfall. This poses a serious threat to the rangelands. Although the impacts and adaptive responses will vary between ecological and geographic systems, climate change is expected to have noticeable detrimental effects: reduced pasture growth and surface water availability; increased competition from woody vegetation; decreased production per head (beef and wool) and gross margin; and adverse impacts on biodiversity. Further research and development is needed to identify the most vulnerable regions, and to inform policy in time to facilitate transitional change and enable land managers to implement those changes.

Scientists advise that the world is warming and high levels of carbon pollution risk environmental and economic damage. No responsible government can ignore this advice. The Australian Government has developed a comprehensive plan to move to a clean energy future. A price on carbon pollution will create incentives to reduce pollution and invest in clean energy. A carbon price will ensure that pollution is reduced at the lowest cost to the economy. Under the carbon price, around 500 of the biggest polluters in Australia will need to buy and surrender to the Government a permit for every tonne of carbon pollution they produce. For the first three years, the carbon price will be fixed like a tax, before moving to an emissions trading scheme in 2015. In the fixed price stage, starting on 1 July 2012, the carbon price will start at $23 a tonne, rising at 2.5 per cent a year in real terms. From 1 July 2015, the carbon price will be set by the market. The carbon price will be accompanied by assistance supporting households, jobs, businesses and communities, to help them adjust, lower their carbon pollution and to protect our international competitiveness. To assist households with price impacts, there will be two rounds of tax cuts and increases in pensions, allowances and benefits. Significant tax reform will mean that more than 1 million people will no longer need to file a tax return. Increasing the tax-free threshold and cutting taxes also boosts incentives to work. Over 50 per cent of carbon price revenue will be spent on households. Household transport fuel consumption will not be subject to a carbon price. Substantial industry assistance will be provided to support jobs and competitiveness as we move to a clean energy future for emissions-intensive, trade-exposed industries, manufacturing, food processing, metal forgers and foundries, electricity generators and small business, as agreed by the Multi-Party Climate Change Committee. The Government is also separately investing in protecting jobs in the steel and coal industries. A $10 billion new commercially oriented Clean Energy Finance Corporation will invest in renewable energy, low pollution and energy efficiency technologies — a major increase in support. The Government will seek to negotiate the closure of around 2000 megawatts of highly polluting electricity generation capacity by 2020 to reduce pollution and facilitate a smooth energy market transition. Farmers and land managers will receive significant support to pursue climate change action on the land and enhance biodiversity through a suite of measures including the Carbon Farming Initiative, the Carbon Farming Futures program and a new Biodiversity Fund. Emissions from agriculture will not be subject to a carbon price. The Government is providing additional support to promote energy efficiency. Low Carbon Communities will help local councils and communities improve energy efficiency in community facilities, including a new Low Income Energy Efficiency Program. The Government will expedite the development of a national energy savings initiative.

The Future Fuels Forum was formed in November 2007 in recognition that the transport sector is facing serious challenges from pressures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increasingly constrained international oil supplies. The Forum’s purpose in light of these challenges was to explore scenarios, conduct quantitative modelling and share ideas as a group so as to inform policy and investment decision making within their own organisations and within the broader Australian community through the publication of this report. The discussion in this report is supported by modelling that was conducted by CSIRO on behalf of the Future Fuels Forum. A more in-depth technical discussion of the modelling has been published separately in Modelling of the future of transport fuels in Australia. There, the reader may scrutinise the various assumptions, sensitivity analysis and methodologies used to arrive at the various quantitative projections herein.

Climate Change in Australia shows how Australia’s climate has changed and how it may change in the future. The website provides information on: - Observed climate change over Australia - Likely causes of climate change - Likely future changes to Australia’s climate - Changes to our climate have the potential to create major impacts on human and natural systems. Further changes to our climate are likely if emissions of greenhouse gases continue to increase. A range of material is available for download, including a technical report, summaries, brochure and poster. The technical report, developed by CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology, presents estimates of projections for climate variables such as temperature, rainfall, evaporation and wind. Maps indicating projected changes to climate can be generated for selected regions, years, seasons, emission scenarios and climate variables. Australian climate change projections are based on international climate change research and build on a large body of work undertaken for the Australian region. The projections have been generated using data from 23 climate models and global warming estimates from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. The projections will be updated in 2014. Projections are particularly valuable for general impact and risk assessment studies. Chapter 6 of the Technical Report provides important guidance on using climate projections in impact assessments.

This chapter provides a review of transport disadvantage in the context of Indigenous Australians with a more specific focus on remote Australia. It identifies transport related disadvantages associated with Indigenous communities, discusses travel behaviour pattens and identifies transport needs and problems. It discusses Aboriginal issues of disadvantage generally and how these affect access to transport. It identifies issues of Aboriginal transport disadvantage relating to life in remote regions, the importance of the motor vehicle in Aboriginal life, issues regarding access to motor vehicles, the importance of culture and the appropriateness of existing services with regard to Indigenous Australians.

In this piece we explore the interface between adaptation research and adaptation policy, planning, and investment. We ask, ‘How is research on adaptation informing the nascent domain of adaptation policy and practice?’ To inform this discussion, we extract a few of the more salient lessons from four different domains of adaptation research: risk assessment and impact response, social vulnerability and adaptive capacity, resilience, and the science of decision making and policy implementation. Through a few select case studies of adaptation planning, we explore the extent to which we see these lessons taking hold in adaptation practice. The cases reviewed suggest that there may be significant differences in the type of research that informs planning in more industrial contexts compared to the developing world. Risk assessment and cost/benefit analysis appear to dominate adaptation planning in the industrialized world, while insights concerning governance, the social and economic constraints to adaptation, and building systemic resilience are featured more in planning documents from the developing world. The focus on risk assessment and associated technological interventions in the industrialized world illustrates the difficulty of addressing underlying structural and cognitive barriers to change, as well as the policy implications of conceptualizing adaptation as an outcome rather than a dynamic process. More broadly, the challenge of adaptation now offers an opportunity for innovative and collaborative research in which networks of academics, policy makers, at-risk populations, and other stakeholders actively participate in understanding the process of adaptation, experimenting in responses to change and learning from that process.

Climate and ocean changes will affect all of Queensland’s marine, terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in ways that are more widespread and, in many situations, more extreme than currently recognised. The modelling and synthesis undertaken in this working paper indicate that all ecosystems across Queensland are expected to experience significant environmental change. Minimising the impact that ecosystem change is projected to have on Queensland’s biodiversity will require a shift in management objectives away from protecting the most threatened species or preserving the current state of ecosystems, to prioritising ecosystem functioning and supporting the natural movement of species. This paper explains how modelling techniques can be used to indicate how much change might be expected for environments in Queensland and what these changes might mean for the ecological character of particular regions or ecosystems.

Purpose – Major shifts in the southern hemisphere circulation occurred during the mid-1970s concurrent with large reductions in southern Australian winter rainfall associated with decreased cyclogenesis. The purpose of this paper is to study changes in cyclogenesis over southern Australia during the last 50 years, examine the ability of coupled climate models to simulate the winter circulation changes, and discuss projected changes in winter circulation and rainfall under different climate change scenarios. Design/methodology/approach – Three dimensional instability theory is used to study changes in cyclogenesis. The response of 22 coupled model intercomparison project three (CMIP3) IPCC climate models to observed increases in greenhouse gases, from pre-industrial to the end of the twentieth century, is examined. The authors focus on two diagnostics closely related to the changes in cyclogenesis: changes in the 300?hPa zonal wind strength; and changes in the baroclinic instability. Projected changes in baroclinic instability and rainfall are investigated in SRESB1, SRESA1B and SRESA2 scenarios. Findings – There has been a 30 per cent reduction in the growth rate of the leading storm track mode crossing southern Australia in the 1975-1994 period, and a 37 per cent reduction in the 1997-2006 period, when compared to 1949-1968. Most of the CMIP3 models capture the changes in the zonal wind; only about a third the changes in baroclinic instability. Projected changes in baroclinic instability and rainfall suggest further reductions in the growth rate of storm track modes and further large reductions in rainfall over southern Australia. Originality/value – The paper addresses a major cause of the reduction in Australian winter rainfall, and provides guidance on future-projected changes.

This article aims to provide an introduction to emerging evidence and debate about the relationship between climate change and mental health. The authors argue that: i) the direct impacts of climate change such as extreme weather events will have significant mental health implications; ii) climate change is already impacting on the social, economic and environmental determinants of mental health with the most severe consequences being felt by disadvantaged communities and populations; iii) understanding the full extent of the long term social and environmental challenges posed by climate change has the potential to create emotional distress and anxiety; and iv) understanding the psycho-social implications of climate change is also an important starting point for informed action to prevent dangerous climate change at individual, community and societal levels.