The Impact of Climate Variability on Ross River Virus Transmission in Queensland, Australia

The Impact of Climate Variability on Ross River Virus Transmission in Queensland, Australia Journal Article

Epidemiology

• Author(s): Tong, S, Hu, W, Nicholls, N, Mackenzie, J, Dale, P, Wolff, R
• Published: 2007
• Volume: 18
• ISBN: 1044-3983

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Abstract: Objective: To assess the impact of climate variability on the transmission of Ross River virus (RRV) infection-the most common and most widespread mosquito-borne disease in Australia. Material and Methods: A range of geographic information system (GIS) techniques and ecologic time-series models was performed to assess the impact of climate variability on RRV transmission in Queensland, Australia. Results: RRV disease has strong spatial and temporal patterns, as mosquito density and longevity depend on a number of environmental and ecologic factors (eg, temperature, precipitation and mosquito-breeding habitats). RRV transmission has strong seasonal cycles and exhibits a substantial geographic variation. At the state level, rainfall, temperature, and tidal levels were generally important environmental determinants in the transmission cycles of RRV disease. Temperature appeared to be a more important predictor in the coastal region than the inland region, whereas rainfall seemed to be more important in the inland area than the coastal area. In some areas (eg, Brisbane), rainfall and sea tides directly influence the density of mosquitoes such as Culex annulirostris and Aedes vigilax respectively, which then affects the transmission patterns of RRV. A time-series forecasting model shows that, in Brisbane, 85% and 95% of the variance in the RRV transmission was accounted for by rainfall and mosquito density, respectively. Conclusions: It is possible to improve the effectiveness of public health responses through the prediction of Ross River virus disease epidemics with GIS-based spatiotemporal models integrating climate and disease surveillance data. An assessment of factors predicting RRV disease transmission will help local authorities identify periods of high risk, optimizing the provision of additional mosquito control measures and community education.

• Urls: http://journals.lww.com/epidem/Fulltext/2007/09001/The_Impact_of_Climate_Variability_on_Ross_River.338.aspx