Modelling of the future of transport fuels in Australia: A report to the Future Fuels Forum
Modelling of the future of transport fuels in Australia: A report to the Future Fuels Forum Report
- Author(s): Graham, P., Reedman, L., Poldy, F.
- Tertiary Author(s): CSIRO
- Published: 2008
Abstract: The Future Fuels Forum is exploring challenges arising from plausible scenarios for the future of transport fuels in Australia. A key objective of the project was for the deliberations of the Future Fuels Forum to be supported by quantitative analysis of the scenarios that were developed. The process of exposing the scenarios to quantitative analysis influenced the formulation of the scenarios by helping to determine the relative importance of different scenario drivers and their assumed future states. Conversely the interaction of the modelling team with the scenario developers assisted in improving various aspects of the quantitative model. This report provides the technical detail behind the projections presented in the report Fuel for thought (CSIRO and Future Fuels Forum, 2008). It describes the modelling framework that was applied, the scenario and model assumptions that were used to underpin the modelling and the detailed model results associated with each scenario examined. The report contains results for a number of sensitivity cases not discussed in detail in Fuel for thought. While the core drivers of the main scenarios are greenhouse gas emissions trading and changes in international oil supply, the sensitivity cases address uncertainty around social preferences for travel, additional policies that might be considered by governments and technological uncertainty in regard to biofuels, hydrogen, nuclear power and CO2 capture and storage. Besides providing additional detail on modelling results the purpose of the report is to make the assumptions of the modelling framework and underpinning data more transparent. The model that is employed for this report is CSIRO’s Energy Sector Model (ESM). It is a partial equilibrium model of the Australian energy sector including a detailed transport sector representation. It was co-developed by CSIRO and the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) in 2006. Since that time CSIRO has significantly modified and expanded ESM. Like all models, ESM has specific strengths and limitations which are discussed in detail in this report.