Could a rabies incursion spread in the northern Australian dingo population? Development of a spatial stochastic simulation model

Could a rabies incursion spread in the northern Australian dingo population? Development of a spatial stochastic simulation model Journal Article

PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases

• Author(s): Gabriele-Rivet, Vanessa, Ward, Michael P., Arsenault, Julie, London, David, Brookes, Victoria J.
• Published: 2021
• Publisher: Public Library of Science
• Volume: 15

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Abstract: Although Australia is free from canine rabies, an incursion from nearby rabies-infected Indonesian islands is a realistic threat. The ubiquitous presence of dingoes in the wild, in association with large populations of free-roaming domestic dogs from northern Australian Indigenous communities, increases the risk of a rabies outbreak. Using a newly developed simulation model, we investigated the potential spread of rabies in a northern Australian dingo population. Nearly 60% of model simulations resulted in more than one pack infected. When spread did occur, outbreaks affected a median of 22 dingoes (an estimated 14% of the population in this area). The duration of infection, proportion of the population infected and spatial spread of the outbreak was greatest when rabies was introduced during the dry season and close to communities. Our results demonstrate that an incursion of rabies into the northern Australian dingo population would likely lead to a rabies outbreak, which would in turn pose a substantial threat to Indigenous communities in northern Australia.

• Urls: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009124